NFL Week 9 Survivor Pool picks: Picking the Saints, Falcons and Patriots plus strategy

Read The Athletic’s NFL survivor pool picks for Week 12. 

The fact we are eight weeks into the season where most of the top teams have already been selected, and the fact they were getting an opportunity to play a bad team (Chicago) led by an undrafted quarterback (Tyson Bagent) made more than 35 percent of you comfortable enough to trust the Los Angeles Charges with your survivor pools on the line. You were rewarded with what might have been the Chargers’ best performance of the season and the opportunity to keep picking into Week 9.

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There are a couple of top teams heading into their bye weeks, as San Francisco, Detroit and Jacksonville are all off this week, while there are only a couple of big lines across the league. The only games with a spread of more than a touchdown are Cleveland at home against Arizona and New Orleans at home against Chicago.

A lot of the top contenders this season also play each other as Kansas City plays Miami overseas, Dallas visits Philadelphia and Buffalo visits Cincinnati on Sunday night.

These were the highest percentage of rostered teams through Week 8: Baltimore, Buffalo, Kansas City, San Francisco, Miami, Buffalo, Seattle, Los Angeles Chargers. We won’t be writing up these elite teams anymore, but if you saved them, the Ravens will make a decent play at home vs. the Seahawks.

Week 9 Strategy

Adam Gretz: I like that all of the top contenders are either playing each other this week or have their bye weeks because it levels the playing field and creates an environment for chaos. Whether you still have one of the top contenders saved or not, nobody is going to be in a position to use them this week because of the byes or the 50-50 matchups where they are playing each other. Everybody is in the same boat, trying to pick between narrow favorites and tight matchups. This is the kind of week that can thin out your pool and increase your chances of winning it … if you choose wisely. Given how close all of these matchups seem, whether they are contenders playing each other or non-contenders playing each other, I am more picking against teams than I am in favor of teams.

Renee Miller: With several good teams on bye and others facing off against each other, everyone will likely be turning to the same ‘unusual suspects’ to survive this week. Oddsmakers foresee a relatively low-scoring week, which is a clue to focus more on defense in making your selection this week. Less obvious teams that have been stout include Houston, Tampa Bay and the NY Jets, who have all averaged fewer than 19 points per game allowed. I love the Saints, who fantasy players know as a team to avoid matching up against, and the Falcons, who’ve been somewhat inconsistent in their pass defense but are one of the best-run defenses in 2023 as other unsung defensive machines. Another advantage of both these teams is that they don’t have any other tempting matchups on the immediate horizon.

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My last thought is that I think the Browns could be a trap pick. They are the biggest favorites (-7.5 points) at home over the Cardinals this week. Arizona just traded Joshua Dobbs to the Vikings and will likely start rookie Clayton Tune at QB. I could spin this either way, to be honest, but I have a sneaky feeling the Cardinals put up a fight. Cleveland’s defense has shown its cracks the past couple of weeks, and its offense is anything but airtight. Be warned!

Week 9 Chalk Picks

All odds via BetMGM. Pick percentages from SurvivorGrid. 

Adam Gretz: Saints over Bears

For some reason, there was an alarmingly strong Tyson Bagent bandwagon forming going into the Bears’ Week 8 game against the Chargers, and it all seemed to be based on him having a decent game against a bad Las Vegas team at home. I know Bears fans – and most of the NFL – are down on Justin Fields right now, but it almost seemed like everybody was trying to will Bagent into a strong showing.

Well … he stunk. And he stunk against one of the worst defenses in football. The fact he has to start again on the road, in one of the toughest environments to play in the NFL (the Superdome), is enough to make me jump at picking the Saints.

Maybe Derek Carr isn’t the answer for the Saints. Maybe he isn’t the answer for anybody as a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback. But he still provides a massive quarterback advantage for the Saints in this game. That will be enough.

Renee Miller: Falcons over Vikings

I’d choose the Saints, just like Adam. The combination of defense and offense they’re displaying right now is elite. However, the options are good. If you can’t use New Orleans, you might consider another decent home favorite in Atlanta (-4.5 points). This is largely about the Vikings, who are now down what is arguably the league’s best wide receiver and one of its best QBs. Fifth-round rookie QB Jaren Hall or newly acquired Joshua Dobbs will most likely be getting the start on the road in Atlanta. Whoever it is will have their hands full learning the offense quickly. They’ll have Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, but any hope of leaning on the ground game will be quashed by the Falcons’ above-average run defense. Not that Vikings running backs have done much to offer hope; they average the second-fewest rushing yards per game.

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Atlanta offers concerns that mostly center around Desmond Ridder’s inopportune turnovers. They run a pretty effective offense most of the time, but Ridder has caused 11 turnovers, including three red zone fumbles in Week 7. He fumbled again in Week 8 before leaving the game to be evaluated for a concussion. Taylor Heinicke is a competent backup, and I’d almost feel better about this pick if he were to start on Sunday. Picking Atlanta is just taking advantage of a bunch of crappy luck dealt to Minnesota this month. Most Week 9 margins are slim; I’m betting this Falcons team keeps its edge over Minnesota.

Week 9 Contrarian Picks

Adam Gretz: Steelers over Titans

I am not eager to trust the Steelers, given how bad their offense is, but I do think this is a potentially strong matchup if you are desperate for a survivor pick.

And you’re probably not going to be comfortable picking the Steelers in almost any other situation, so why not roll the dice here?

Mike Tomlin might have his flaws and shortcomings as a head coach, and the Steelers have their flaws this season, but they tend to reserve some of their best play for when the lights are shining in primetime.

Tomlin and the Steelers are typically excellent in these spots (including 2-0 in primetime this season), and they are getting a Tennessee team traveling on a short week with a rookie quarterback (Will Levis) making his second NFL start. As good as Levis looked a week ago, having a short week to prepare for a road game against T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith coming off the edge could be a brutally tough matchup. Like most Steelers games, this should be a dreadful viewing experience for everybody involved, but it does seem like the exact type of game they win. In the survivor world, they don’t care how you win.

Renee Miller: Patriots over Commanders

The Patriots are favored at home by three points this week, so they’re not a super-crazy pick, but they are still the Mac Jones-led Patriots, so I’m not going to pretend this pick is comfortable. Jones does look to be improving after a miserable slump in Weeks 4-6 (zero TDs, five INTs). Over his past two games, he’s thrown four TDs and only one interception. In that span, we’ve also seen Jones start to rely more on exciting rookie Demario Douglas and he got Juju Smith-Schuster involved for his first Patriots touchdown in Week 8’s loss to Miami. This is good news since their top receiver, Kendrick Bourne tore his ACL and is done for the season. But – and I’m saving the best for last – this pick is about the Commanders’ defense and its utter inability to stop anyone this season. In points per game, they rank second, allowing an average of 28.5 points per game. An improving Patriots offense meeting an extremely weak defense is a fortuitous time to take a chance on New England.

On the other side of the field, Washington’s offense has been very inconsistent, taking advantage of weak spots (like the Eagles’ pass defense) but ultimately losing close games in the last two weeks. While New England has given up their own share of points this season (26 PPG), they are above average against the run and average against the pass. Their worst defensive performances have come on the road (to Dallas and Miami). To be clear, picking the Patriots this week is not only contrarian, it should be considered out of desperation, not as an attempt to out-smart your friends.

GO DEEPER

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(Photo of Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara: Michael Hickey / Getty Images)

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